🪲 BugOut Index

Data revisions tracker

How much do the headlines change after the fact?

Most economic indicators are revised after their first release. This page shows two lenses on that for the U.S. labor market: monthly revisions to nonfarm payrolls (PAYEMS) and the annual benchmark revision to the unemployment rate (UNRATE). Lower unemployment isn't necessarily lower revision risk — the point here is to see whether the number you read on day one survives contact with later data.
Most recent fully-revised PAYEMS observation (2026-04): initial 158,736k → +1mo 158,829k (+93k) → +2mo 158,798k (+62k).

Nonfarm payrolls revisions, last 24 months

Each observation month plotted three times: as first published (blue), one month later (orange), and two months later (green). Source: ALFRED (PAYEMS).
Total nonfarm payrolls (PAYEMS), thousands of persons159,790159,428159,066158,704158,3422024-082025-012025-052025-102026-022026-07Initial release+1 month revision+2 month revision
Show PAYEMS table
Observation Initial release Initial value +1 month +2 months Net revision (+2 − initial)
2026-06 2026-07-02 158,984
2026-05 2026-06-05 159,001 158,927
2026-04 2026-05-08 158,736 158,829 158,798 +62k
2026-03 2026-04-03 158,637 158,637 158,621 -16k
2026-02 2026-03-06 158,466 158,459 158,459 -7k
2026-01 2026-02-11 158,627 158,558 158,592 -35k
2025-12 2026-01-09 159,526 159,526 158,432 -1,094k
2025-11 2025-12-16 159,552 159,476 158,449 -1,103k
2025-10 2025-12-16 159,488 159,420 158,408 -1,080k
2025-09 2025-11-20 159,626 159,593 159,593 -33k
2025-08 2025-09-05 159,540 159,540 159,540 +0k
2025-07 2025-08-01 159,539 159,539 159,518 -21k
2025-06 2025-07-03 159,724 159,466 159,466 -258k
2025-05 2025-06-06 159,561 159,577 159,452 -109k
2025-04 2025-05-02 159,517 159,517 159,422 -95k
2025-03 2025-04-04 159,398 159,340 159,340 -58k
2025-02 2025-03-07 159,218 159,170 159,155 -63k
2025-01 2025-02-07 159,069 159,067 159,053 -16k
2024-12 2025-01-10 159,536 158,926 158,942 -594k
2024-11 2024-12-06 159,288 159,288 159,280 -8k
2024-10 2024-11-01 159,005 159,005 159,061 +56k
2024-09 2024-10-04 159,105 158,993 158,993 -112k
2024-08 2024-09-06 158,779 158,851 158,770 -9k

Unemployment rate — before vs after the latest annual benchmark

UNRATE is rarely revised between releases, but each January's Employment Situation incorporates an annual benchmark that can shift up to five years of history. Blue is today's series; orange is the same series as it stood the day before the most recent benchmark release. Source: ALFRED (UNRATE).
Unemployment rate (UNRATE), percent — current vs pre-benchmark vintage5.18%4.72%4.25%3.78%3.31%2021-082022-082023-082024-072025-072026-07Current vintagePre-benchmark vintage
Most recent benchmark release: 2026-02-11 · pre-benchmark snapshot taken on 2026-02-10.

How to read this page

“Initial release” means the value the day BLS first published it. “+1 month” and “+2 months” are the values as they stood after the next two scheduled employment reports. Larger gaps between the lines indicate that the headline number moved meaningfully as additional survey responses came in. Small gaps don't prove the data is right — only that it didn't change much within the monthly revision window. Annual benchmark revisions can still rewrite older months beyond what this chart shows.