🪲 BugOut Index

Methodology — v1.0.0

The BugOut Index aggregates six normalized metrics into a single weighted score on a 0–100 scale, where higher values indicate greater societal stability. This page describes how the current week's number was produced.

Raw weights are relative coefficients that sum to 0.72. The “share of score” column is weight / 0.72 — the fraction of the finished index each metric actually carries after the publisher divides by the sum of weights. Tile labels that say “Raw weight 15%” are the raw weight × 100, not the post-division share.

Metric	Raw value	Unit	Normalization range	Normalized	Raw weight	Share of score	Source
Inflation Rate	3.35	%	−10 to 15	46.59	15.0%	20.8%	FRED (CPIAUCSL)
Violent + Property Crime	2,723.00	per 100k	500 to 8,000	70.36	12.0%	16.7%	Real-Time Crime Index
Unemployment Rate	4.10	%	0 to 25	83.6	12.0%	16.7%	FRED (UNRATE)
Debt-to-GDP Ratio	122.59	%	0 to 200	38.7	12.0%	16.7%	FRED (GFDEGDQ188S)
Homelessness Rate	0.23	% of pop.	0 to 0.5	54.0	9.0%	12.5%	HUD AHAR
Trust in Government	41.00	% confidence	0 to 80 (inverted)	51.25	12.0%	16.7%	Edelman Trust Barometer

Each metric is normalized to 0–100 using predefined thresholds:

normalized = (1 − (raw − min) / (max − min)) × 100

Trust in Government is inverted (higher trust → higher stability) by applying 100 − normalized after the above transform — equivalently a linear map of the trust percent on 0–80. An Edelman reading of 41 normalizes to 51.25. Inflation at 4% on −10…15 normalizes to 44.

The index is the weight-normalized sum of the per-metric scores (divide by the sum of weights; with all six present that denominator is 0.72). A perfect week on every metric therefore scores 100:

BOI = Σ (normalized_i × weight_i) / Σ weight_i

Range	Band	Interpretation
70 – 100	High Stability	Low risk — focus on long-term planning.
55 – 69.99	Moderate Stability	Warning signs — monitor trends; prepare contingencies.
40 – 54.99	Low Stability	Heightened risk — initiate preparedness measures.
Below 40	Critical Instability	Collapse likely — activate bug-out plans.

• Freshness mismatch. Inflation, unemployment, and debt-to-GDP update monthly or quarterly; the Edelman trust score updates annually; homelessness is annual (HUD PIT). The BOI is recomputed weekly but will only move when underlying data publishes.
• National scope. Crime and homelessness figures are national averages or approximations; local conditions vary substantially.
• Not a forecast. The BOI describes current observed conditions relative to chosen thresholds, not future outcomes.
• Threshold sensitivity. Because the index is built on fixed normalization ranges, slow drift inside a range will not move the score — the thresholds are calibrated to reflect historically extreme conditions at the endpoints.

Every weekly run commits the raw inputs, the computed normalized scores, and the final index to this repository. The code that produced this page is open source; you can recompute any historical week by checking out that commit and re-running runtime/publish/weekly_run.py.