The BugOut Index moved from 57.11 on 2026-09-25 to 57.04, a change of -0.07 points.
Unemployment changed from 4.1 (observed 2026-08-01) to 4.2 (observed 2026-09-01) (change of +0.1).
Unchanged core inputs: inflation stayed at 3.353016322755652 (observed 2026-08-01); crime stayed at 2,723 (file vintage, value month September 2025; crime file through April 2026; file updated 2026-06-16); debt-to-GDP stayed at 122.59387 (observed 2026-01-01); homelessness stayed at 0.23 (manual, last set 2024 HUD AHAR); trust in government stayed at 41 (annual, 2025).
The Treasury yield spread changed from 0.36 to 0.45 (change of +0.09; observed 2026-10-02), and VIX changed from 14.21 to 16.39 (change of +2.18; observed 2026-10-01).
Unchanged pulse series: initial jobless claims stayed at 197,000 (observed 2026-09-26); U. Michigan consumer sentiment stayed at 51.7 (observed 2026-08-01); OECD business confidence stayed at 98.96989 (observed 2024-01-01, stale, unchanged across recorded weeks).
Gold changed from 4,286.2002 to 4,141.7998 (change of -144.4004), silver changed from 64.419 to 60.524 (change of -3.895), and the US dollar index changed from 119.5133 to 120.33 (change of +0.8167); markets fetched 2026-10-03.
Markets, the short-term pulse, the labor-utilization shadow series, the food-price shadow series, and the NYC DHS shelter-census shadow series are not inputs to the BugOut Index score.
Headline labor numbers move after release. See how much the last 24 months of payrolls have been revised on the data revisions tracker.
These readings are companions only. They are not in the BugOut Index and they have no weight. Replacing headline unemployment still requires a backtest.
Each point is a FRED observation month, not a BugOut Index publication week. Not in the BugOut Index.
This reading is a companion only. It is not in the BugOut Index and it has no weight. The figure is the public 12-month change in food prices (FRED CPIUFDNS, BLS CUUR0000SAF1), rounded to one decimal the way BLS prints that table. It is not a score.
Each point is a FRED observation month, not a BugOut Index publication week. Not in the BugOut Index.
This reading is a companion only. It is not in the BugOut Index and it has no weight.
It is a New York City headcount from
NYC Open Data k46n-sa2m
(field total_individuals_in_shelter), not a national rate and not a substitute for the HUD AHAR homelessness input.
Each point is a DHS census date, not a BugOut Index publication week. New York City only. Not in the BugOut Index.
The BugOut Index is a directional stress and stability reading (methodology v1.0.0). Six published statistics sit between fixed endpoints and combine into one 0–100 score. Higher means those conditions are less stressed. The number shows how hard the published inputs are pressing. It is not a forecast, and it is not an instruction to bug out. Markets, the short-term pulse, labor utilization, food prices, and the NYC DHS shelter census on this page are companions. They are not in the score. The NYC census is New York City only. HUD AHAR remains the annual national homelessness input. Several inputs update monthly, quarterly, or once a year, so many weeks the number does not move. See methodology for the calculation, weights, and limits. The committed weekly files are the record of a past score. Rerunning the publisher fetches current observations and does not rebuild that week.
For the long-horizon structural picture — whether the country is currently set up to produce broadly-shared prosperity and mobility over years and decades — see the American Dream Reality Index (ADRI). ADRI updates annually and weights toward education, health, real income, employment, inequality, and civic and safety fundamentals. The two indexes answer different questions. The BugOut Index is a weekly reading of pressure in a few published series. ADRI moves on slow structural conditions. Each can move for reasons the other does not catch.